The 2025 budget framework is collapsing under the weight of unrealistic expectations. The cash execution of the Consolidated Fiscal Program (CFP) for 2025 results in a deficit of 6.828 billion leva or 3.1% of the forecast GDP. This is a departure from the Maastricht criteria, which require the budget deficit to be within 3% of GDP. This analysis lacks an important detail - defense spending and capital injections into state-owned companies, which are off-balance sheet, but directly increase the state debt. Serious discrepancies are also observed on the revenue side. Contributions, aid and donations under the CFP reach 86.1 billion leva - 95.4% of the budget. Although the nominal growth compared to the previous year is 19.5% or 14.1 billion leva, this means a shortfall of about 1.6 billion euros compared to the plan and about 450 million euros below the expectations in the latest medium-term forecast. The main reason - a failure in the collection of local taxes. Tax revenues for 2025 amount to 44.5 billion. BGN, or 92.4% of the planned amount, which is equal to a shortfall of over 3.6 billion BGN. The most sensitive area is VAT - about 3.3 billion BGN below the planned amount. The above taxes have been fulfilled, but this does not compensate for the huge gap in VAT and excise duties. The reason - clearly unrealistic planning from the very beginning. Despite weak revenues, the deficit was maintained through spending cuts and deferrals. The capital program was implemented at only 67.8%, current spending at 85.4%, and total non-interest-bearing spending at 82.2%. This resulted in "savings" of 5.2 billion leva. Even with this economy, the deficit remains above the 3% of GDP threshold - a clear sign of the inadequacy of the budget framework for 2025.

Bulgaria has imported coins worth a total of 70.15 million euros from Estonia over the past two years. In 2024, the imported coins were worth 33.615 million euros, which in volume is 0.527 tons, while in January-September 2025, imports increased and were worth 36.535 million euros, and their volume was 0.698 tons. Coins are the second most important "goods" that Bulgaria imports from the Baltic state, the first being precious metals. Over the past two years, a surge in imports from Estonia has been recorded, largely due to the surge in gold and silver prices. The coins imported from Estonia are most likely investment gold and silver. In recent years, and especially in the period 2024-2025, they have been very popular among Bulgarian citizens who want to save their savings from high inflation and geopolitical risks. All investment gold coins are traded in our country - from the new "American Eagle", "Vienna Philharmonic", "Australian Kangaroo", "Chinese Panda", "Krugerrand", etc. to historical gold coins from the early 19th century to World War I, among which the most famous are the French francs or, as they are called among Bulgarians, "Napoleons".

The German company Brinell Compute GmbH plans to build an artificial intelligence (AI) factory for 3 billion euros near Plovdiv. For this purpose, a Memorandum of Intent and Understanding has been signed between the Bulgarian government and the German company for the implementation of the investment project. The implementation of the project is expected to start no later than the second quarter of 2026. The company Brinell Compute was registered in September 2025 in Munich with a capital of 25,000 euros. It plans to develop and build next-generation artificial intelligence factories. The company's main goal is to create the digital infrastructure of tomorrow. Its team has successfully implemented over 4 GW of grid-scale energy infrastructure across Europe, providing over 2.5 billion euros in financing for energy projects. The company's Managing Director is Thilo Marcel Braun. Shareholders in equal shares are Brinell Group and Gordias Capital GmbH of Philipp Merck. A key factor for the implementation of such projects is considered to be the launch of the project to build an underwater fiber optic cable along the bottom of the Black Sea, which will connect Bulgaria with Turkey and Georgia, and at a later stage also Ukraine. The KARDESA project is being implemented by the British Vodafone with an investment of over 100 million euros and should become a reality by the end of 2027.

The Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) announced that the machines for printing banknotes and coins that Bulgaria has are universal and are not intended for a specific type of currency. Only settings are made on the devices to produce a specific denomination or currency. The machines that printed Bulgarian banknotes will continue to work, but for other issuing banks. Those of the Mint, which were used to mint stotinki, will be used to mint euro coins with the Bulgarian national side. Until now, leva were printed by the company Obertur Fiduciaire, in which the BNB printing house is a shareholder. It is among the 11 licensed companies in Europe for printing euro banknotes. So in the future, euros will also be printed in our country. The production of euro banknotes is coordinated by the ECB and the national central banks based on annual demand forecasts, providing quantities to replace unfit banknotes and to cover expected increases in demand. Only the production of euro coins is ensured by the national authorities of each euro area member state.

"EP Commerce" Ltd. is a company with many years of experience in distribution and partnerships with leading manufacturers. The decisive moment for its own brand MAGIA came in 2025, when "EP Commerce" expanded its cooperation with MAXXI PRO and acquired a stake in the company. This strategic move is not just a financial investment, but the acquisition of direct access to a modern factory in Bulgaria with solid experience in professional cleaning and disinfection. Through this partnership with MAXXI PRO, strict control over every stage is guaranteed - from the selection of raw materials to the final packaging. For "EP Commerce" the MAGIA project is proof that products that are fully competitive with international brands can be created in Bulgaria. The company's ambitions include not only leadership in the local market, but also expansion into new territories where the brand can establish itself as the preferred choice. The company plans a 12% growth in turnover compared to the previous year with the clear goal of total revenues reaching 50 million euros, including the results of MAXXI PRO. "This growth will be supported by optimization of distribution channels, expansion of the product portfolio and entry into new markets," commented the company's CEO Ivan Stoyanov.

The Ministry of Electronic Governance (MEG) announced progress and next steps in the development of the European Digital Identity Wallet in Bulgaria, emphasizing that the Bulgarian technology sector will be actively involved in the process. The initiative aims for more convenient and secure digital identification for citizens and businesses, including signing and exchanging authenticated data, with an initial version to be prepared by mid-February. Within the framework of the coordination, Evrotrust will contribute to the architecture, technical specifications, deployment scenarios and aspects of the regulatory framework. The wallet will remain state property and will develop as an open platform with the possibility of integrating Evrotrust and qualified certification service providers. In line with the priorities of the MEG, Evrotrust is developing a national version of the European Digital Identity Wallet. It is a prototype implementation, compatible with European specifications, which supports the introduction of a single, convenient and secure standard for digital identification and signing in Bulgaria and accelerates the validation of key scenarios. Evrotrust is participating in the WE BUILD consortium – a pan-European pilot project of the European Commission for the development of the architectural and reference framework of e-identity wallets, intended for over 400 million citizens in the EU and tens of millions of legal entities. The consortium is working on 13 business and payment scenarios related to secure identification, representative authority and exchange of authenticated data in B2B, B2G and B2C interactions.

In just two weeks, the Bulgarian Energy Holding acquired a seven-story building in the center of Athens and seven acres of land with a rest station in the capital's Boyana district. This happened through an exchange of state properties between the company and the ministries of culture and foreign affairs, without specifying how the properties will be used, what the value of the transactions is, and what investments the holding will have to make for the renovation. The Ministry of Culture acquired part of the remains of the ancient Serdika theater from the Bulgarian Energy Holding (BEH). A one-acre property on the central Dondukov Blvd. As compensation, the company was supposed to receive an equivalent property in the Vitosha region. However, the property in question is 7 acres and includes the former BTA creative home in the Boyana district. The company receives a property with an area of ​​7,118 sq m on 101 Belovodski Pat Street. The former BTA Creative Home is located there. The company must pay the difference in property values.

Behar Disha is the new CEO of TITAN Zlatna Panega, part of TITAN Group, effective January 2026. He succeeds Adamantios Francis, under whose leadership the company achieved sustained improvement in key production and business indicators and implemented numerous initiatives in the field of modernization and decarbonization. Adamantios Francis remains with TITAN Group in a regional advisory role and will support the development of the business in Southeastern Europe, thus ensuring a smooth succession in management. Behar Disha joined TITAN Group in 2009 in TITAN Albania as Production Manager. In 2018, he continued his professional journey in TITAN Kosovo - initially as Plant Director and subsequently as General Manager. As part of the regional leadership team of TITAN Group, Behar Disha has a key contribution to initiatives related to commercial transformation, development of product solutions and optimization of production indicators.

In implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, the Ministry of Health announced a new procedure BG-RRP-12.016 "Performance of construction works necessary to provide material base for the delivery, assembly and installation of medical equipment for the diagnosis and treatment of pediatric and oncological diseases" by directly providing funds to seven medical institutions for hospital care (final recipients). These are: USBALO "Prof. Ivan Chernozemski" EAD, Sofia, UMBAL "St. Ivan Rilski" EAD, Sofia, UMBAL "St. Georgi" EAD, Plovdiv, "National Cardiology Hospital" EAD, Sofia, UMBAL "Tsarina Joanna - ISUL" EAD, Sofia, UMBAL "Dr. Georgi Stranski" EAD, Pleven, "Complex Oncology Center - Ruse" EOOD, Ruse. The procedure provides for 100% grant funding, with the total amount of funds being EUR 20,273,686, of which EUR 16,894,738 is funding from the Recovery and Resilience Mechanism and EUR 3,378,948 is national public funding (non-refundable value added tax). The aim of the procedure is to modernize the medical care provided in the field of pediatrics and oncology, by providing the necessary material base for the delivery, assembly and installation of new, high-tech medical equipment in key medical institutions for hospital care. The deadline for submitting project proposals under this procedure is February 5, 2026.

The holding has announced competitions for managers of two of the Terem companies. They are looking for directors of the Khan Krum branch in Targovishte and the Letets company in Sofia. For both positions, some of the conditions for candidates are to have a master's degree in technical or economic and legal sciences, to have at least 5 years of professional experience, to know the sector, to have permission to access classified information at the "Secret" level. There are three stages for conducting the competition. For one of them, candidates are required to prepare a business plan for the development of the enterprise for the next five years. For the first time in 10 years, "Terem - Letets" is profitable, said the director of the holding, Kalin Dimitrov. And the other problematic company - "Khan Krum" has secured work. A year ago, employees of the "Khan Krum" company went on a protest due to unpaid salaries and an unclear future of the plant.

One of the fastest growing fintech companies in Bulgaria – ITF Group – reported a 35% increase in revenue to a record 35.5 million leva in 2025. The jump in revenue also led to an increase of over 53% in profit before taxes to 6.1 million leva compared to 4 million leva a year earlier. Last year, the company managed to grant loans with a total volume of approximately 75 million leva, which is a 43% increase compared to 2024. ITF Group’s net loan portfolio grew by 58% to 48.15 million leva. The fintech company, specializing in non-bank consumer and business lending, operates on the market with online loans SmileCredit, as well as with the first Bulgarian peer-to-peer lending platform Klear, which ITF Group acquired in 2025. The innovative financial institution is in the top 5 companies in the online lending segment in Bulgaria, and its shares are traded on the BEAM segment of the Bulgarian Stock Exchange-Sofia. After ITF Group issued two bond issues in 2019 and 2024, respectively, of BGN 5 million and EUR 3.9 million, in April 2025 the company issued a third bond issue in the amount of EUR 8 million. All three issues are traded on the Bulgarian Stock Exchange, and the total resources attracted by ITF Group on the Bulgarian capital market already exceed EUR 15 million. The opportunities for this have greatly expanded after the deal to acquire shares in the first Bulgarian peer-to-peer lending platform Klear and FinBiz Technologies, which ITF Group implemented in the second half of last year. The innovative model of the peer-to-peer platform allows for long-term diversification of ITF Group's funding sources. The next step in this direction was the bank financing agreed by the company at the end of 2025 in the amount of 5 million euros.

According to preliminary Eurostat estimates published by Euronews, Spain and Portugal achieved 0.8% economic growth in the last quarter of 2025 - almost three times the eurozone average (0.3%). For Spain, 2025 marked the strongest annual economic growth, with GDP growing by 0.8% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous three months and a quarter more than the forecast 0.6%. On an annual basis, the Spanish economy expanded by 2.8%, with overall growth in the eurozone of 1.5%, 1.1% for France and a modest 0.4% for Germany. According to experts, the main driver of the Spanish economy is domestic consumption. In the last three months of 2025, Spanish households spent 1% more on the Spanish market than in previous quarterly periods. Investments grew by 1.7%, while public spending remained stable, with a mere 0.1% increase. Tourism confirmed its key role in the services sector, which grew by 0.8% in the last quarter. Construction saw a much bigger jump in the same period, growing by 2.1%. Lower energy prices and low inflation are the main factors behind consumer confidence, who felt freer to spend more, especially in the run-up to Christmas and New Year. Portugal also reported a strong third quarter of 2025, with economic growth of 0.8% (against a forecast of 0.5%) and 1.9% year-on-year – again above the eurozone average. In Portugal, growth was driven by an improved trade balance amid a sharp decline in imports, especially of oil and petroleum products. This boosted domestic production and offset weaker domestic demand. In the last quarter of 2025, Lithuania has overtaken the two Iberian economies, recording economic growth of 1.7%, but on an annual basis Spain and Portugal remain excellent performers. The results of the two countries are in sharp contrast to the overall economy in the eurozone – 0.3% economic growth in the last quarter (still with a forecast of 0.2%). In the entire currency union, only the economy of Ireland has contracted, falling by 0.6% for the period. On an annual basis, the eurozone economy has expanded by 1.5% compared to 0.9% in 2024, but the European Commission expects the momentum to slow to 1.2% in 2026. In the results of the major economies in the last quarter, Germany and Italy fit in with 0.3% economic growth, with a more modest 0.2% for France. Compared to the eurozone, the EU economy as a whole also grew by 0.3% in the third quarter and by 1.6% for the year, i.e. slightly better growth than the eurozone economy. Despite the mixed economic performance, the eurozone labour market is improving. Unemployment fell to 6.2% in December - the lowest level in 27 years. In practical terms, this means that at the end of the year in the currency union 10.8 million people were unemployed - still 61,000 fewer than in November last year. Youth unemployment in the age group up to 25 years also fell slightly - from 14.4% in November to 14.3%. For the European Union as a whole, the unemployment rate remains stable at 5.9%. As a "fresh" member of the eurozone, Bulgaria is absent from the Euronews publication, but according to the report of the outgoing government, our country ranks in the top five with economic growth above 3% and GDP of € 113 billion (up from around € 104.75 billion in 2024). The expectations for 2026 (incl. the European Commission) are that this strong momentum will continue, decreasing in 2027 to 2.1%. cash.bg

Artificial intelligence continues to make headlines, but a closer look at official U.S. economic data reveals a more nuanced picture of U.S. growth in 2025, CNBC reports. While AI-related investment and technology spending play a role in supporting GDP, they are not the number one driver. The battle is on consumer spending. This distinction is important because it changes the way we think about the underlying force of the economy and where its momentum really comes from. While capital spending on AI infrastructure and related technologies has been significant, it is second only to household consumption. Personal spending, driven by services, goods and everyday purchases, has continued to support the economic expansion, although AI-related investment has added momentum. The discrepancy between the hype and the data comes down to the way GDP is calculated. While tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet have poured unprecedented amounts of capital into AI infrastructure, a huge chunk of that spending hasn’t actually stayed in the U.S. economy. Because a significant portion of high-end hardware is manufactured overseas, those purchases are counted as imports. In the GDP math, imports are subtracted from the total. When analysts adjusted for these f-factors, AI’s net contribution to real GDP growth in 2025 fell to 20-25%. Without the adjustments, the contribution is nearly double, which also refutes the claim that the “AI bubble keeps recessions at bay.” Moreover, some economists argue that while spending on data centers and technology has been unusually high, much of it reflects a cycle of capital investment with capacity built in advance. Companies are racing to build capacity before costs rise or supply chains tighten. That is, it’s not sustainable productivity growth. Economists point out that while AI infrastructure is a significant investment topic, consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of total economic activity in the U.S. For AI to truly become the “biggest driver” of GDP, it will need to move beyond the infrastructure-building phase and start driving large, measurable productivity gains in the broader services and manufacturing sectors. A shift that many experts believe is still several years away. This distinction is important for how policymakers and investors interpret economic trends. If consumer demand remains strong, the economy could continue to grow even without a dominant tech sector. But if consumer spending declines while tech investment slows or faces headwinds, as some analysts warn could happen when stimulus or tax cuts are rolled back, overall GDP growth could weaken. The data changes the risk profile for the new year. If the entire U.S. economy were truly dependent on AI capital spending, any slowdown in technology spending or the bursting of the AI ​​bubble would trigger an immediate national crisis. The fact that the expansion is more balanced, with diversified support from consumer demand and non-tech sectors, suggests that the economy is more resilient than pessimists had assumed. It also reduces the need for immediate “monetization” of AI. Even if it takes corporations longer to find profits from their AI investments, the economy as a whole is not necessarily doomed to stagnation.

Factory activity in Asia expanded in January, supported by robust global demand that led to a rise in export orders, private business surveys showed on Monday. The data gave policymakers some reassurance that the impact of higher U.S. tariffs has now faded, Reuters reported. Manufacturing activity in Japan and South Korea grew at the fastest pace in several years as big markets like the United States maintained their economic momentum, improving the outlook for Asia’s top exporters. In China, factory activity accelerated in January on a rebound in export orders, one of the surveys showed, contrasting with an earlier official report that showed activity was weakening. The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for China’s overall manufacturing, compiled by S&P Global for RatingDog, rose to 50.3 in January from 50.1 in December. The reading is above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction and is the highest since October. The survey reflects China’s strong export orientation, which has offset weak domestic consumption and helped the world’s second-largest economy grow 5.0 percent last year. In Japan, the S&P PMI rose to 51.5 in January from 50.0 in December, the strongest level since August 2022, supported by solid demand from key markets such as the United States and Taiwan. “Japan’s manufacturing industry returned to growth in early 2026, with companies reporting the strongest growth in output and new orders in almost four years,” said Annabel Fides, director of economic analysis at S&P Global Market Intelligence. In South Korea, the PMI rose to 51.2 points in January from 50.1 points in December, the highest level since August 2024.