The Ministry of Finance has raised its inflation expectations and lowered those for economic growth due to the consequences of the war in Iran. In its spring forecast, the ministry predicts a 4.3% increase in average annual inflation and a 5.2% annual increase in consumer prices by the end of 2026. Real GDP growth will slow to 2.6%, compared to the previously expected 2.7%. For next year, the forecast is for 2.5% economic growth, which should remain within similar limits of 2.5-2.6% in 2028-2029.

The net income from fees and commissions of the banking system in Bulgaria increased by 10 percent or BGN 163 million on an annual basis to a total of BGN 1.8 billion by the end of 2025, the Bulgarian National Bank announced. Last year, income from fees and commissions increased by BGN 241 million (11.6 percent) to BGN 2.3 billion, while expenses for fees and commissions increased by BGN 78 million (17 percent) to BGN 538 million. Net income from fees and commissions accounted for 22.1% of the structure of net operating income at the end of 2025. The total net operating income of the banking system increased by BGN 189 million (2.4 percent) compared to the end of 2024, reaching BGN 8.1 billion at the end of 2025. Interest income increased by BGN 150 million (2.2 percent) to BGN 6.9 billion, while interest expenses increased by BGN 79 million (6.8 percent) to BGN 1.2 billion. As of December 31, 2025, the banking system reported a profit of BGN 3.6 billion, or BGN 43 million (1.2 percent) less than in 2024.

The average growth of the 20 enterprises with the fastest growth in turnover in metalworking in 2024 is slightly over 91% and is fully comparable to that of the previous year (93%). The sector is developing steadily after the record 2022, when revenues jumped by nearly 150%, largely due to inflation. The trend, which began after the start of the war in Ukraine, for a strong presence in the ranking of businesses producing metal products for the defense industry is also maintained. All 20 companies are profitable, and their employees are also increasing. The leader in the ranking, PAT BG, which is registered in Sofia, but its plant is in Pleven, is increasing its revenues nearly 7 times. The company is part of the Vaptech machine-building company of former banker Boni Bonev, and the Greek citizen Alexandros Voreopoulos is a 50% partner. The company has two main activities - metal processing (pressing, cutting, bending, etc.) and assembly of modules for various sectors - automotive industry, electronics, electrical engineering, medicine, construction, defense, etc. In 2024, revenue from sales of products increased, revenue from services increased, and significant growth - by about 1.5 million euros (3 million leva) - was observed in inventories of products and work in progress. The number of employees increased fourfold to 166 people, and by November 2025 their number was already 180. The company's results are related to the restructuring of the activities of "Vaptech", which in 2024 transferred its entire production activity together with the staff to PAT BG. "Vaptech" continues to sell its products under its own brand, but production has been completely outsourced to the subsidiary, as well as to other enterprises. Hilti Austria Industrie, which is reorienting its entire production of aluminum reinforcing elements for suspended facades to PAT BG, with the first sales of finished products expected to begin in the second half of 2025. At the end of 2024, negotiations with the American Bliss Munitions Equipment, which specializes in the production of ammunition for small arms, were also finalized. An investment of about $ 3 million in production equipment and tools for the manufacture of products is planned for the implementation of the contract. In the second half of 2025, PAT BG has planned to launch a new product line for the defense industry - blanks for the production of cartridge cases for small-caliber small arms, renting additional industrial halls and personnel for this purpose.

Bulgarian technology company Hydrogenera has announced the signing of a key international contract for the supply of a 2 MW hydrogen system. The deal will deliver a 2 MW hydrogen system for a green hydrogen production project targeting industrial users in Germany. The project is funded by a grant from the German government, which represents a key step in establishing the company as a reliable partner in the development of strategic hydrogen infrastructure in Europe. The system will be put into operation in Ukraine and will provide hydrogen with a purity of 99.999% for industrial customers in Germany, creating a sustainable cross-border supply chain. The total value of the contract, including equipment maintenance for a period of 1 year, amounts to 45.41% of the company’s total revenue, or EUR 2 million.

After the IQOS stores, the largest distributor in the country - "Orbico" is also entering a second retail segment - it will offer luxury cosmetics, acquiring the business of "Estee Lauder Bulgaria". The deal has already been authorized by the Commission for the Protection of Competition and is completed. "Orbico" is acquiring seven stores for rent and entering the market of the so-called selective cosmetics, which is estimated at around 120 million euros. The buyer also has the option to sell the portfolio of new brands to other retailers. According to the latest data from 2024, "Estee Lauder Bulgaria"'s revenues are 6.8 million euros, and the employees are 65. The ultimate owner of the sold business is the American division of Estee Lauder for Europe. From the beginning of 2026, "Orbico Bulgaria" will take over the distribution, retail sales and overall management of the retail stores of "Estee Lauder Companies" (ELC) in Bulgaria. "Orbico Group" as the sole owner of "Orbico Bulgaria" is a long-standing successful partner of "Este Lauder Companies" in eight other markets in Eastern Europe. Based on this cooperation, the two companies also reached an agreement for the business of "Este Lauder" in our country. "Orbico Bulgaria" acquires the leasehold right over the store areas, the right to distribute part of the products from the "Este Lauder" portfolio, which are offered at retail in the stores, as well as the assets, inventory and stocks available in them. According to the agreement, "Orbico Bulgaria" will manage five MAS stores, which are located in The Mall, Paradise Mall and Mall Of Sofia in the capital, in Delta Planet - Varna and Plovdiv Plaza, as well as two "Este Lauder" stores - in Mall Of Sofia and on the capital's "Vitosha" Blvd. No. 67. The team of this business is about 60 people, and the goal of "Orbico Bulgaria" is to preserve and develop it in the future. The MAC stores are focused primarily on premium decorative cosmetics (professional makeup) under the MAC brand, while the Estee Lauder stores offer a wider range of top-class products. Orbico Bulgaria will distribute products from 13 brands, part of the Estee Lauder Companies portfolio, in several segments: perfumery, skin care, makeup, hair care, pharma cosmetics. The brands for which there is an agreement for the territory of Bulgaria at the moment are: Aveda, Balmain, Bobbi Brown, Bumble&Bumble, Clinique, Estee Lauder, Frederic Malle, Jo Malone, Kilian Paris, La Mer, Mac, Origins, Tom Ford". The buyer will not carry out online trade with products from the Estee Lauder portfolio. As of December 31, 2025, the agreements of Estee Lauder Bulgaria for the distribution of selective cosmetics with local authorized retailers have been terminated due to the planned termination of the company's activities. These agreements have not yet been transferred to another company in the Estee Lauder Companies group, nor to Orbico. Under the agreement, Orbico will not become an exclusive distributor on the Bulgarian market, but will act solely as an authorized distributor. For more than seven years, the distributor "Orbico Bulgaria" has been present in the retail segment through the management of IQOS heated tobacco products and to date there are more than 40 throughout the country. According to data from the non-governmental organization Cosmetics Europe, in 2023 the total volume of the cosmetics retail market in Europe is 95.67 billion euros, and in Bulgaria - 552 million euros. The premium cosmetics segment in Europe in 2023 is estimated at 20.33 billion euros, or about 20% of the total cosmetics market. In 2024 the European market grows to 104 billion euros. Considering the share of the Bulgarian market in relation to the total market volume in Europe (0.58% for 2023), it can be assumed that the total volume of the retail cosmetics market in Bulgaria for 2024 is about 590 million euros, and the premium selective cosmetics segment - about 118 million euros, the Commission for the Protection of Competition indicates. The main distributors of selective cosmetics in the country are: "Perfumery Douglas Bulgaria", "L'Oreal Bulgaria", "Sarantis Bulgaria", "Cosmetic Plus", "Notos Bulgaria", "Sephora Bulgaria", "Estee Lauder Bulgaria". The retail market is highly fragmented, the market share of "Este Lauder" stores is 0-5%. "Orbico Bulgaria" distributes a number of FMCG, incl. household goods, personal hygiene products, cosmetic products (mainly in the mass segment), children's toys, batteries and electronics, baby food and snacks, lubricants, pharmaceutical products, etc. The distribution network covers the entire territory of the country. On the Bulgarian market, the company distributes many world-famous brands of the largest global manufacturers such as Philip Morris, Procter & Gamble, Kellog's, Duracell, Hipp, Shell, SC Johnson, Wella Company, Papadopoulos, Coty, Shiseido, Elizabeth Arden and many others. In the "Beauty segment" the company distributes over 50 brands, including Max Factor, Bourjois, Hugo Boss, Burberry, Gucci, Calvin Klein, Shiseido. In 2024, "Orbico Bulgaria" reports almost 718 million euros in sales revenue and 2.15 million euros in net profit. The company employs 1,321 employees as of January 2026. The sole owner of "Orbiko Bulgaria" is Orbiko d.o.o - a limited liability company registered in Croatia, owned by Croatian Branko Roglic.

The soda ash (light and heavy) and soda bicarbonate company Solvay Sodi occupies a significant share in both the Bulgarian industry and the European market. The management of Solvay Sodi presented plans for an investment of about 20 million euros for the construction of a new boiler - a critically important first step in the process of decarbonization of production. The project is part of a long-term roadmap for modernization and energy efficiency and is linked to an application under the EU Modernization Fund, with the support of the European Investment Bank. Project proposals are submitted to the European Commission twice a year, with a national framework being prepared in advance, which serves as the basis for their subsequent development and application.

Eurozone benchmark interbank interest rates have started to rise, directly impacting mortgage repayments at a time of record debt levels in countries like Portugal. Mortgage payments are rising, with the first increases set to hit some households as early as April. The rise in Euribor – the interest rate at which European banks lend to each other – is a direct result of the market turmoil caused by the conflict in the Middle East. This increase came immediately after the first US and Israeli military strikes against Iran, breaking a period of slight decline that had been observed earlier. With six- and twelve-month Euribor rates above 2.5%, experts expect a significant increase in monthly payments on loans that are due for review this month. For a 30-year loan of €150,000 with a 1% premium, the increase amounts to around €15 for the six-month index and around €10 for the twelve-month index. While the amounts may seem modest, in terms of the twelve-month Euribor this represents a nearly 20% increase compared to pre-war levels. These changes will only affect floating-rate contracts, which are updated periodically every three, six or twelve months. With the general rise in the cost of living – from food to fuel – any additional burden on family budgets could have serious repercussions. Analysts warn that with any future increase in interest rates and the maintenance of high debt levels, the pressure on consumers in Europe will continue to grow, calling into question their financial stability.

France has sold the last of its gold held at the US Federal Reserve. France's total reserves of around 2,437 tonnes - the fourth largest in the world - are now entirely in Paris. The French central bank (Banque de France - BdF) announced that it had renewed 129 tonnes, around 5% of its total reserves, between July 2025 and January 2026, raising €12.8 billion. The BdF is gradually replacing older, substandard gold with bars that meet modern international standards. The big "retreat" was in 1963-1966, when the largest amounts were withdrawn - by the Fed and the Bank of England. The process of withdrawing gold from New York is now fully complete. Instead of refining and transporting the gold remaining in the US, it has chosen to sell it and buy new, modern-standard bars from European exchanges. There are still 134 tons of older bars and coins that the bank intends to replace by 2028. BdF Governor François Villeroy de Gallo emphasizes that the decision to withdraw from the US is not politically motivated, but entirely economically justified. Thanks mainly to gold transactions, the central bank has erased a loss of 7.7 billion euros since 2024 and made a net profit of 8.1 billion euros before last year. And in Germany, which has the second largest gold reserves in the world, economists have called on the government to withdraw its gold from the US for political reasons. The Bundesbank holds about 1,236 tons of gold in the US, or about 37% of its reserves.