The Bulgarian economy will grow by 3.4 percent this year, according to the autumn forecast of the Ministry of Finance. There will be a slight slowdown to 3.3% next year. Inflation will accelerate to 2.8% at the end of this year, but will slow down by under a percent over the next three years. Unemployment will continue to decline, but at a slower pace. Bulgaria's economy will grow by 3.4% in 2019, despite the expected slowdown in the second half of the year, according to the Ministry of Finance's unaudited "autumn macroeconomic forecast". After growing 3.1% last year, the ministry continues to expect some acceleration of Bulgaria's GDP to 3.4% in 2019, followed by steady 3.3% economic expansion over each of the next three years, driven by of consumption and investment. Compared to the "spring forecast" in 2019, the slowdown in the global economy will be more noticeable in the current year and slightly lower in 2020, but in the medium term the growth of global GDP will remain stable, forecasts the financial ministry. A slowdown in the European economy's growth in 2019 is expected, but the Ministry of Finance notes that international financial institutions confirm in their forecasts that in 2020 the European economy, as well as the euro area, will have a higher economic growth compared to the current year.

According to final data from the National Statistical Institute, in 2018 the institutional sector "Central Government" reported a budget surplus of BGN 1.921 billion, or 1.8% of the Gross Domestic Product of the country, amounting to BGN 109.695 billion. The indicator improves compared to 2017, when the positive budget balance was BGN 1.121 billion or 1.1% of GDP. Last year's surplus in the “Central Government” sub-sector amounted to BGN 1.667 billion, or 1.5% of GDP last year. The “Local Government” subsector generated a surplus of BGN 150 million and the “Social Security Funds” subsector - a positive balance of BGN 104 million. Bulgaria's national debt at the end of 2018 amounts to BGN 24.4431 billion, or 22.3% of the country's GDP, NSI data show. There is a decrease compared to the BGN 25.908 billion in debt in 2017 (25.3% of GDP).

A consortium of Saudi-based Arkad Engineering and Construction Company and its Italy-based joint venture company Arkad ABB has started construction works on a EUR 1.1 billion gas pipeline project in Bulgaria. The consortium has so far completed the construction of a five-kilometre trench and has six kilometres of pipes ready for laying. Last month, Bulgaria's gas transmission system operator Bulgartransgaz signed a EUR 1.1 billion contract with the consortium for the construction of a gas pipeline, which will connect the country's existing gas transmission system to the border with Serbia, and will carry gas from TurkStream. Earlier on Monday, Bulgaria inaugurated an 11-km gas pipeline from the Turkish border to compressor station Strandzha, which will serve as part of the extension of Gazprom's TurkStream pipeline toward Serbia. The project also included the construction of Strandzha gas metering station. The construction of the pipeline and gas metering station is an expression of Bulgaria's commitment to retain its strategic position on the European gas market. Works on the project were completed by a local tie-up under a BGN 27.7 million contract. According to registry agency data, Stroymontazh controls 50% interest in the tie-up, Glavbolgarstroy owns a 45%, while GBS - Infrastructurno Stroitelstvo holds 5%.

Bulgaria's state-owned National Railway Infrastructure Company (NRIC) has signed a BGN 9.8 million contract with Slovenia's Iskra for the upgrade of railroad dispatching centres. The contract was signed on September 18. Ljubljana-based Iskra will be responsible for the project design, the supply of spare parts and equipment, as well as construction works on the Centralized Traffic Control (CTC) system in 16 train stations located on the railroad between Sofia and Karlovo, in central Bulgaria. NRIC received two offers in the public procurement procedure for awarding the contract. Bids were ranked mainly based on price, which carried 60% weight in the total score. Slovenia's Iskra provides intelligent industrial solutions and cutting-edge electrotechnical products. Iskra helps companies to improve existing applications and introduce new technologies in strategic business areas, according to information published on the company's website.

The VM Petroleum petrol station chain will open its second gas station in Sofia in the coming months. Following the 51-column mega-site in the Lyulin residential complex, where several thousand vehicles are services daily, the company is finalizing a gas station in one of Sofia's major eastern neighborhoods. The news was announced on the fourth birthday of the first site of the chain, which started in Varna on October 21st. Negotiations for the purchase of a plot of over 6 decares, which will make the new facility with almost the same capacity as the one in Lyulin, are at the finish line. Construction and licensing of the facility is expected to take about 12 months. " We remind that currently the price of diesel fuel in Sofia is about BGN 2.30, while at our gas station in Lyulin it is BGN 2.04, the savings from the differences in prices between VM Petroleum and other gas stations is nearly BGN 3,000 a year per family, which is the price of a vacation at sea," said Dimitar Dimitrov, Director of Development at VM Petroleum.

Bulgarian financial leasing company Elana Agrocredit financed purchases of agricultural land worth BGN 2.4 million in September. In September 2018, the company financed deals worth BGN 859,000. Elana Agrocredit has financed farm land acquisitions worth some BGN 9.3 million so far this year. By the end of September, 88.98% of the company's clients had paid their leasing payments due in 2019 in full. In September, Elana Agrocredit signed a BGN 15 million loan deal with local bank Expressbank, comprising a revolving credit facility of up to BGN 5 million and an investment loan of up to BGN 15 million for funding the expansion of the company's leasing portfolio.

Greek retailer Jumbo said that its profit before taxes from operations in Bulgaria rose to EUR 22.7 million in its fiscal year 2018-2019, ended June 30, compared to EUR 21.0 million in its 2017-2018 fiscal year. The company booked sales of EUR 86.2 million in latest full financial year, up from EUR 78.8 million in fiscal year 2017-2018. Cost of goods sold increased to EUR 42.3 million in the period under review from EUR 38.6 million in the previous fiscal year. Jumbo's Bulgarian unit employed 841 people at the end of June, up from 831 at the start of the year. Jumbo entered the Bulgarian market in 2005. Outside Greece, Jumbo has stores in Bulgaria, Romania and Cyprus.

Germany's economic output could have fallen slightly again in the third quarter of 2019, mainly due to the continued weakening of the country's export-oriented industry, Deutsche Bundesbank, the German central bank, said in a monthly report released on Monday. After a 0.4-percent growth in the first quarter, the overall economic output of the eurozone's largest economy weakened by 0.1 percent in the second quarter. The Bundesbank said the leading indicators currently show few signs of a sustained recovery in exports and stabilization in the industrial sector. There is a greater risk that the downward trend would extend to the more domestically-oriented industries, the analysts wrote. However, the central bank also said that a clear, broad-based recession is not yet apparent. Retail sales figures indicated that consumer confidence was undiminished and the labor market continued to improve, resulting in favorable income prospects for consumers, it said. The report showed that in July and August, the average industrial production was markedly lower than in the second quarter.

Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party has retained power but a narrow election win means he is forced to lead a minority government as prime minister. His party will claim the most seats in parliament but their second term will be much harder, relying on other parties to pass legislation. The Liberals are expected to claim 156 seats, 14 short of a majority. His centre-right Conservative rivals are heading for 122 seats, a marked increase from the 95 it held before. Monday night's results could be good news for the country's left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) and its leader Jagmeet Singh, who could be kingmaker. This federal election was seen as a referendum on Mr Trudeau, who endured a bumpy first term, tainted by scandal. "You did it my friends. Congratulations!" he told cheering supporters in Montreal. Turning to address those across the country who voted for him, he said: "Thank you for having faith in us to move our country in the right direction."

China’s policy makers are preparing for two key meetings in the coming weeks with fresh evidence that sooner rather than later, the number for gross domestic product growth will start with a 5. Data released Friday showed an economy expanding at just 6.0%, the slowest in almost three decades, and with broad investment growth too tepid to rely on an upturn down the road. People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang responded to the data not by hinting at much greater stimulus in the pipeline, but by reminding investors that China’s focus remains on keeping its heavy debt load under control. Yi’s comments may set the scene for a meeting of the Politburo, the Communist Party’s top leaders, and the ensuing Fourth Plenum of the Party’s Central Committee, a broader gathering that may mull longer-term questions of economic policy. While those events could produce a shift away from the current targeted, moderate stimulus regime, there have been few signals to date of any change.